This fall will likely test the patience of many farmers. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, much of Illinois—especially the southern two-thirds—is abnormally dry or in D1 to D2 drought. Even in the northern part of the state, where conditions appear “normal” on the map, lawns are browning and soil moisture in the fields is dwindling. With little rain in the forecast, I won’t be surprised to see those dry colors expand on the map. 

That reality complicates cover crop plans. The benefits of using cover crops—improving soil health, suppressing weeds, reducing erosion and building soil organic matter—are well documented. But all those goals depend on one thing: getting the cover crop established. Without adequate moisture, seeds cannot germinate or seedlings may not survive long enough to grow. 

So what’s the right move? Should you plant now and hope for rain, or hold back? There’s no single answer for every situation. Instead, it’s important to weigh your goals and consider a few points that I consider to be universal: 

Watch the calendar for winter-terminal species. 

• We are right at or beyond most recommended cut-off dates for oats, radishes, turnips and similar species. If they haven’t been seeded, I recommend not sowing them at this point. Seed sitting in dry soil is effectively “not planted.” Exceptions may apply if these species are only a small part of a multi-species mix or if  farming farther south—think south of Effingham, IL. 

Stick with winter-hardy species but consider options with seeding methods. 

• Aerial seeding into standing corn may be convenient, but it offers minimal seed-to-soil contact and little access to any soil moisture that may be present. Waiting until after harvest provides two advantages: time for future rains to recharge moisture, and the chance to incorporate seed with light tillage or use direct seeding methods like a drill, VT-mounted air seeder or planter. 

 Stay alert for late rains and plan ahead for spring. 

• Chances are good there will be some rainfall yet this fall to help winter-hardy species establish. Keep an eye on the drought monitor and, more importantly, your own fields.  

• If dryness persists into spring, plan to adjust your termination timing. Preserving soil moisture for your cash crop may require terminating cover crops earlier than usual. 

While drought complicates seeding decisions, a flexible approach can help you avoid wasted effort while still setting up your fields for success. Stay intentional, monitor conditions closely and be prepared to adjust your strategy both this fall and next spring.